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Hillary Clinton leads in new polls of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania

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Hillary Clinton speaks at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

Two new battleground state polls released Monday find Hillary Clinton with the advantage in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania with hours to go before Election Day.

New Hampshire

The CNN polling average in New Hampshire now has Clinton with a 3-point edge (44% to 41%) over Republican opponent Donald Trump following a new poll’s released Sunday showing the Democratic presidential nominee with an 11-point lead.

The poll from the University of New Hampshire, released Monday, found Clinton ahead of Trump 49% to 38%. Libertarian Gary Johnson registered 6% in the poll, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew 1%. Four percent said they remain undecided.

Other polls have shown a far closer race in New Hampshire — a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of the state last week found the race tied at 42%. Even incorporating the new UNH poll from Monday,

The UNH poll found that 85% of likely voters in New Hampshire have their minds made up with hours to go before the presidential election, with Clinton drawing more support from Democrats (95%) than Trump does from Republicans (86%). Clinton is also powered by her edge among women and college-educated voters, while men and voters with a high school degree or less form the base of Trump’s support.

According to the poll, Trump and Clinton “will end the election cycle historically unpopular among New Hampshire voters,” with both candidates registering negative favorability ratings: -14% for Clinton, and -36% for Trump.

The UNH poll also surveyed New Hampshire voters on down-ballot races, and found Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan leading incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte 48% to 43% in the state’s tight senate battle.

The UNH poll of New Hampshire was conducted between November 3-6, and surveyed 707 New Hampshire likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percent.


Clinton also has a lead in another crucial battleground state — Pennsylvania — according to the CNN polling average updated to show a new survey out over the weekend from Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call.

The CNN polling average of Pennsylvania, reflecting five recently released state surveys, has Clinton at 47% to Trump’s 42%.

The Muhlenberg College poll found Clinton with a 4-point lead over Trump, 44% to 40%, in a four-way race. Johnson measured 7% support and Stein drew 2%.

Similar to New Hampshire, Clinton draws support from women, college-educated voters and nonwhite voters while Trump’s advantage lies with men, voters with no college education, and white voters. Trump narrowly edges Clinton among the state’s independents (41% to 38%). And Trump and Clinton are both widely unpopular among Pennsylvania’s likely voters — each candidate registers an unfavorable rating of about 60%.

Clinton is also helped by a huge advantage in the vote-rich southeast portion of the state, which includes Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs. The poll found Clinton leading 61% to 29% in that region. Trump, meanwhile, has an edge (47% to 41%) in the southwest corner of the state, which includes Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County. Trump leads in the remainder of the state, 52% to 36%, according to the poll.

Pennsylvania also has close senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. The poll found Toomey leading McGinty by one point, 42% to 41%, within the poll’s margin of error.

The Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll was conducted between October 30 and November 4, and surveyed 405 likely Pennsylvania voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 points.

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