Marquette poll: Harris lead over Trump narrows among likely voters

MILWAUKEE - Former President Donald Trump has pulled closer to Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin, released on Wednesday. 

Harris (50%) leads Trump (49%) among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup. The results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose; keeping initially undecided voters as a separate category, Harris holds 48% of likely voters, Trump gets 47%, and 5% are undecided.

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The previous poll, the results of which were released in early October, found Harris (52%) leading Trump (48%) among both registered and likely voters. 

Donald Trump; Kamala Harris

In a multi-candidate race, the poll found Harris (46%) leads Trump (44%), while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 5% support and other candidates received 2% or less. The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected an emergency appeal to remove RFK Jr. from Wisconsin's ballot.

U.S. Sen Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde 51% to 49% in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters in Wisconsin. The results, too, include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose; when initially undecided voters are kept as a separate category, Baldwin was the choice of 48% and Hovde was the choice of 45%, with 7% still undecided.

"It is so close that even the slightest shift in these last six days can tip the race, whether we’re talking about the seven swing states, most of which are on a knife’s edge, or whether we’re just talking about Wisconsin," said Professor of Law and Public Policy and Director of the Marquette Law School Poll Charles Franklin of Trump and Harris. "This is a race that really could go either way and we shouldn’t be particularly surprised. The big surprise would be on the day after the election, if we find somebody has won by mid-single digits: 5 or 6 points. That would be this year's big surprise."

The latest poll was conducted Oct. 16-24 and involved the interviewing of 834 Wisconsin registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, as well as 753 likely voters, also with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. The full questionnaire, methodology and results can be found on the poll's website.

"The idea that Dane County’s turnout and vote margin is a huge question to watch and see if she gains even more than Biden was doing," Franklin said. "[And]  the rural areas. Those areas are voting pretty heavily for Trump, but they’re not voting as heavily Republican as other similar rural areas in other states. So is there gain to be made there? Will we see another uptick there? But he didn’t see an uptick in 2020. He picked up in 2016 but not 2020, so I’m watching that."