Is home court advantage real? UWM research explores
MILWAUKEE - Whether Giannis Antetokounmpo plays in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday night, the Milwaukee Bucks will have an extra man on the bench – the fans.
It has been loud at every home game both inside Fiserv Forum and outside in the Deer District. Most fans will tell you their screaming can be a difference-maker, but research from UW-Milwaukee shows it's a little more complicated.
For basketball player Adrian Coleman, Rose Park his home court.
"I grew up over here, been over here for like 21 years," Coleman said. But he isn't a believer in home-court advantage. "I don’t think home-court advantage has anything to do with anything. It’s the team that is going to be hungry."
The screaming fans in the Deer District would beg to differ.
"Home court advantage is everything at the end of the day," Bucks fan Mark Peterson said. "I think we saw during bubble ball last season that our players really missed us. They missed our energy.
So how does one measure the impact of playing at home? UW-Milwaukee doctoral student Austin Harris spent several months researching if fans make a difference.
"We downloaded about 30 years worth of NBA statistics, specifically team performance statistics like field goal percentage and free throw attempts, three-point attempts, things like that," Harris said.
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The data shows there may be a difference in home-court advantage, depending on how the home team plays. Teams that take more 2-point shots have more home-court advantage, while teams that take more 3-pointers have less home-court advantage.
"I suspect, and we don’t have the data to back this up fully, but I suspect it has to do with the referees being influenced by the crowd," said Harris. "The referees tend to have more of an impact on the game whenever teams are driving into the paint and taking those contested 2-point shots whereas on the 3-point line the refs are a little less involved."
No matter what type of shots the Bucks take on Thursday, Harris suggests screaming – just in case.
"Be as loud as you possibly can be because I do think it plays a role, a minute one, but it does matter," Harris said.
Harris' data started with the 1983-84 season and ended with the 2017-18 season, so his findings were not impacted by the bubble year amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
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