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Marquette University Law School poll: Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders leaders in Wisconsin

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MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Ted Cruz ahead in the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary race, supported by 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Donald Trump and 21 percent for John Kasich, while 8 percent don’t know whom they will support. Among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton, with 6 percent undecided. In the election for Wisconsin Supreme Court, Rebecca Bradley is supported by 41 percent with JoAnne Kloppenburg at 36 percent and 18 percent undecided.

New Marquette University Law School Poll shows Bernie Sanders leading in Wisconsin

New Marquette University Law School Poll shows Bernie Sanders leading in Wisconsin

Marquette University Law School Poll: Where Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich stand in Wisconsin

Marquette University Law School Poll: Where Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich stand in Wisconsin

In the previous Marquette Law School Poll released in February, Trump was supported by 30 percent of Republican primary voters, with Cruz at 19 percent and Kasich at 8 percent. Other candidates who have since dropped out had a total of 31 percent. In the Democratic race in February, Sanders received 44 percent and Clinton 43 percent. The Supreme Court election in February found 37 percent support for Bradley and 36 percent support for Kloppenburg among likely voters, with 30 percent each among all registered voters.

Among likely voters in this new (March) poll, 54 percent say they will vote in the Republican primary while 46 percent choose the Democratic primary. Ninety-nine percent of Republicans say they will vote in the Republican primary with 1 percent choosing the Democratic contest. Among Democrats, 95 percent say they will vote in that party’s primary, with 5 percent crossing over to the GOP. Independents, including those leaning to either party, choose the Republican primary over the Democratic primary by 60 percent to 40 percent.

The poll was conducted March 24-28, 2016. The full sample includes 1,405 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results for the Republican primary are based on 471 likely voters who say they are certain they will vote in the Republican primary in April. That sample has a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. Results for the Democratic nomination are based on 405 likely voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points. For the April 5 Wisconsin Supreme Court election there are 957 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. All results reported here are for likely voters except where registered voters are used for November elections.

U.S. Senate Race

Ron Johnson and Russ Feingold

Ron Johnson and Russ Feingold

In Wisconsin’s race for U.S. Senate, Russ Feingold is supported by 47 percent of registered voters, with Republican incumbent Ron Johnson receiving 42 percent. In February, Feingold was at 49 percent and Johnson was at 37 percent. Among those likely voters who say they are certain to vote in November’s election, Feingold receives 48 percent and Johnson 45 percent.

Johnson is viewed favorably by 32 percent of registered voters, unfavorably by 31 percent and 36 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In February Johnson’s ratings were 29 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable and 38 percent were not able to rate him. 

Feingold is seen favorably by 41 percent of registered voters, unfavorably by 35 percent with 25 percent saying they have not heard enough or don’t know how they feel. In February Feingold’s ratings were 43 percent favorable, 31 percent unfavorable and 26 percent were unable to rate him.

Supreme Court candidates

Rebecca Bradley, JoAnne Kloppenburg

Rebecca Bradley, JoAnne Kloppenburg

More than a third of likely voters say they do not know enough about the Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. Forty-one percent lack an opinion of Bradley and 35 percent lack an opinion of Kloppenburg. Thirty-two percent have a favorable view of Bradley while 28 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her. Thirty percent hold a favorable view of Kloppenburg while 35 percent have an unfavorable view.

Support for the Supreme Court candidates is strongly related to choice in the presidential primary. Among likely Republican primary voters, Bradley receives 69 percent support while Kloppenburg receives 11 percent, with 17 percent undecided and 4 percent saying they will vote for neither candidate. Among Democratic primary voters, 64 percent support Kloppenburg while 12 percent support Bradley, 17 percent are undecided and 7 percent say they will vote for neither court candidate. 

Presidential perceptions and matchups

Donald Trump in De Pere

Donald Trump in De Pere

Republican primary voters were asked who they think is most likely to win the Republican nomination, regardless of whom they personally support. Sixty-five percent see Trump as the most likely nominee, followed by Cruz at 23 percent and Kasich at 5 percent. In February, after the Iowa and New Hampshire votes, 46 percent expected Trump to be the nominee, 25 percent said Cruz would be and 1 percent said Kasich.

Hillary Clinton in Green Bay

Hillary Clinton in Green Bay

On the Democratic side, 77 percent think Clinton is the most likely nominee, with 19 percent saying Sanders is most likely to win the nomination. Prior to Iowa and New Hampshire voting, 60 percent said Clinton and 33 percent said Sanders was most likely to win the Democratic nomination.

In possible matchups among registered voters for the November general election in Wisconsin, Sanders leads Kasich by 2 points, Cruz by 13 and Trump by 19. Clinton trails Kasich by 9 and ties with Cruz while holding a 10‑point margin over Trump. Results are for all registered voters.

  • Sanders 46 percent, Kasich 44 percent.

(Not asked previously.)

  • Sanders 52 percent, Cruz 39 percent.

(February: Sanders 53 percent, Cruz 35 percent.)

  • Sanders 54 percent, Trump 35 percent.

(February: Sanders 54 percent, Trump 34 percent.)

  • Kasich 48 percent, Clinton 39 percent.

(Not asked previously)

  • Clinton 44 percent, Cruz 44 percent.

(January: Clinton 43 percent, Cruz 43 percent.)

  • Clinton 47 percent, Trump 37 percent.

(February: Clinton 47 percent, Trump 37 percent.)

Views of presidential candidates

Voters were asked how comfortable they would be with the idea of each candidate as president. While there is considerable discomfort across party lines, among likely Republican primary voters 23 percent say they are very uncomfortable with the idea of Trump as president and 14 percent say the same for Cruz while 5 percent are very uncomfortable with Kasich. Among likely Democratic primary voters, 3 percent are very uncomfortable with Sanders and 8 percent with Clinton.

Candidate Percent Very Uncomfortable

Among all Likely Voters

Among Republican

Primary Voters

Among Democratic

Primary Voters

Kasich 10 5 17
Cruz 37 14 64
Trump 55 23 89
Sanders 36 67 3
Clinton 47 82 8

Walker endorsement

Ted Cruz in Altoona

Ted Cruz in Altoona

The Tuesday-morning endorsement of Cruz by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker aligns with how voters were leaning prior to the endorsement, when the poll was taken. Among the 80 percent of likely Republican primary voters who approve of the job Walker is doing as governor, Cruz has the support of 45 percent, Trump 27 percent and Kasich 18 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Among the 17 percent who disapprove of Walker’s job performance, 44 percent back Trump, 38 percent Kasich and 16 percent Cruz, with just 1 percent undecided.

Regional support for candidates

Among likely Republican primary voters, Cruz does best in Milwaukee County and the larger Milwaukee media market while doing least well in the Madison market. Trump is strongest in the north and west of the state, although Cruz is now a single point behind there. Kasich is strongest in the Madison market, followed by the Milwaukee market.

Region Cruz Kasich Trump
Milwaukee City and County 53 22 15
Rest of Milwaukee Media Market 43 21 27
Madison Media Market 19 37 33
Green Bay Media Market 41 15 32
Rest of the state (north and west) 40 17 41
Bernie Sanders campaigns at Carthage College in Kenosha

Bernie Sanders campaigns at Carthage College in Kenosha

In the Democratic primary, among likely voters, Sanders’ lead is strongest in Madison and the north and west, with other areas closely competitive. In the City of Milwaukee, Clinton leads 51‑42 among all registered voters but Sanders has the edge 47-46 among likely voters, an indication of the potential effect of turnout on the results.

Region Clinton Sanders
Milwaukee City and County 45 49
Rest of Milwaukee Media Market 48 46
Madison Media Market 42 52
Green Bay Media Market 48 46
Rest of the state (north and west) 42 54

Demographics and vote

In the Republican primary electorate, Trump wins 35 percent of the vote of likely primary voters without a college degree compared to 21 percent among those with a college degree. However, Cruz now captures 37 percent support from those with less than a college degree and 45 percent among those with a college degree. Kasich receives 20 percent from those without and 23 percent from those with a degree.

John Kasich in Madison

John Kasich in Madison

Among men in the Republican primary electorate, Trump is the choice of 35 percent compared to 24 percent among women, while Cruz receives 40 and 39 percent respectively. Kasich is supported by 18 percent of men and 25 percent of women.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, there are large differences in preference by age, with Sanders winning 83 percent among those 18-29, 59 percent among 30-44 year olds, 43 percent among those age 45-59 and 31 percent among those 60 and over. For Clinton the corresponding percentages are 12 percent among ages 18-29, 37 percent among ages 30-44, 51 percent among ages 45-59 and 63 percent among those 60 and over.

Among likely Democratic primary voters: Clinton receives the support of 48 percent of women and 40 percent of men, while Sanders is backed by 46 percent of women and 54 percent of men. Sanders holds a 51 to 42 percent lead over Clinton among white likely primary voters while Clinton leads Sanders 58 to 42 percent among non-white voters.

Populist appeals

Views on free trade divide likely voters of both parties. Overall, 37 percent say free trade agreements have been mostly a good thing for the country, while 46 percent say mostly a bad thing and 17 percent say they don’t know. Among Republicans, 32 percent say free trade agreements have been a good thing, while 48 percent say they have been bad and 19 percent don’t know. Among Democrats, 43 percent say a good thing, 42 percent say a bad thing and 14 percent don’t know.

Among likely Republican voters who think free trade has been a good thing, Cruz receives 48 percent, Kasich 24 percent and Trump 21 percent. Among those who think trade agreements have been a bad thing, Trump receives 41 percent, Cruz 33 percent and Kasich 19 percent.

Ted Cruz speaks one-on-one with FOX6 News

Ted Cruz speaks one-on-one with FOX6 News

For Democrats who think trade agreements have been mostly a good thing, Clinton is supported by 54 percent to 42 percent for Sanders. Those Democrats who think the agreements have been mostly bad back Sanders by 60 percent to 36 percent.

Hillary Clinton takes part in community forum in Milwaukee

Hillary Clinton takes part in community forum in Milwaukee

Primary voters differ on whether hard work and playing by the rules is still sufficient to make a decent living. Among Republicans, 74 percent say hard work is enough and 24 percent say it is not, while among Democrats 38 percent say hard work is enough and 57 percent say it is no longer enough.

Donald Trump in Appleton

Donald Trump in Appleton

Among those who say hard work is no longer enough for a decent living, Trump receives 46 percent of the GOP primary vote, while he is supported by 25 percent of those who say hard work continues to provide a decent living. Cruz receives 35 percent and 41 percent respectively while Kasich is supported by 12 percent of those saying hard work is no longer sufficient and 24 percent of those who say it is.

John Kasich in Wauwatosa

John Kasich in Wauwatosa

On the Democratic side, Sanders is backed by 57 percent of those saying hard work is no longer enough, while 40 percent of those who say it is enough support him. Clinton receives 37 percent from those who say it is not enough and 56 percent from those saying hard work is enough.

Bernie Sanders campaigns in Appleton

Bernie Sanders campaigns in Appleton

Fifty-five percent of Republican and 53 percent of Democratic primary voters say they have a comfortable financial situation, while 45 percent and 47 percent respectively say they are just getting by or are struggling.

Among those in the Republican primary who say they are comfortable, Trump receives 23 percent support, compared to 39 percent among those just getting by or struggling. Cruz receives 39 and 41 percent from the respective groups, while Kasich is supported by 27 percent of those saying they are comfortable and 15 percent of those getting by or struggling.

Among those in the Democratic primary, Sanders is supported by 44 percent of those who say their situation is comfortable and 55 percent of those just getting by or struggling. Clinton receives 50 percent among those who are comfortable and 39 percent among those just getting by.

Thirty-eight percent of Republican primary voters say they think a terrorist attack on the U.S. is very likely, 48 percent say somewhat likely and 12 percent say not very or not at all likely. Among Democratic primary voters, 12 percent say an attack is very likely, 46 percent say somewhat likely and 40 percent not very or not at all likely.

Among those Republican primary voters who think a terrorist attack is very likely, 41 percent support Cruz, 39 percent Trump and 15 percent Kasich. Of those who say an attack is somewhat likely, 41 percent back Cruz, 25 percent Trump and 23 percent Kasich. Of those who think an attack is less likely, 32 percent support Cruz, 26 percent Trump and 34 percent Kasich.

Of Democratic primary voters, too few think an attack is very likely for a reliable estimate of the vote, although it appears evenly split in this small group of 55 respondents. Among the larger sample who say an attack is somewhat likely, Clinton is supported by 51 percent to Sanders’ 43 percent. Among those thinking an attack is less likely, Clinton receives 37 percent to Sanders’ 55 percent.

Walker Job Approval

Gov. Scott Walker

Gov. Scott Walker

Among all registered voters approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 43 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. In February, 39 percent approved and 55 percent disapproved. 

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 1,405 registered Wisconsin voters, by both landline and cell phone, March 24-28, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points for the full sample. For Republican presidential primary likely voters, the sample size is 471, with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. For Democratic presidential primary likely voters, the sample size is 405, with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points. For the April 5 Wisconsin Supreme Court election there are 957 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. All results reported here are for likely voters except where registered voters are used for November elections.

The partisan makeup of this full registered voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44 percent Republican, 48 percent Democratic and 7 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 33 statewide Marquette polls, with 28,335 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 47 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 28 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic and 36 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 39 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll.

9 comments

  • Virginia Navarrete Brooks

    This little girl of Chicago’s 1950s middle class, grew into an intelligent and ambitious young woman of America’s 1960s and 70s activists and civil revolutionaries. Earning every bit of her admissions, education, and accolades at Wellesley College and Yale Law School through her persistent hard work and determination. A middle aged woman of the 1980s and 90s who worked committedly to not only support her husband and raise her daughter (as was expected of her generation), but to serve the disenfranchised, her community, and her Party. An old gal now, for sure, but one who has achieved and earned the respect of so very many around the World in this Century as Secretary, Senator, First Lady, Democrat, Activist, Advocate, Mother, Grandmother, and Spouse. Now derided as ambitious, opportunistic, dishonest, greedy, a liar, and worse, for serving by the same rules as every Man who has ever risen in Public Service and Political Office. Hillary wakes up every day eternally optimistic and ends each day sorely underappreciated and underestimated. Alas, the fate of Women. “Whatever women do they must do twice as well as men to be thought half as good.” ― Charlotte Whitton

    • DonaldMSmith

      ~My best friend’s step-aunt makes $87 hourly on the computer using his Facebook Account. She has been out of work for nine months but last month her paycheck was $12968 just working on the computer for a few hours….~
      Continued….~
      >>>>>>>>>> Check This Special-Work-At-Home…
      >>—————————————————————————————————>>

    • Cat Smythe

      We all know enough to conclude that Hillary Clinton committed a crime relative to her use of private email for national security purposes

      Here is what the relevant law says:
      “Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody” 18 USC 793(e).

      Here are the questions which a jury would have to answer to convict Hilary:

      1. Was she entrusted with any document or information related to national defense?

      It is obvious that the answer is yes.

      2. Did she allow this information to be placed someplace other than its lawful location?

      It is obvious that many of her emails dealing with secrets and other official business were on a private email server when the law required them to be on secure State Department email servers.

      3. Was this done by Hillary’s gross negligence?

      We all have seen the evidence that her decision to do this was 100% deliberate. Deliberate wrong doing always satisfies the standard of gross negligence.

      She can be fined and sentenced to 10 years in jail for violating this statute.

      This is simple law and should have taken a very short time to evaluate and charge her.

      She should be criminally charged. If she is not, the government loses the moral right to charge any other employee for violating this law and a sacred trust to put nation above self.

      This was all about Hillary risking our national security for her personal ease.

      She is unfit to be president.

  • David John Francis

    May be Democrats, Conservatives, Independents Black Americans, White Americans, Hispanic Americans and every minority who are American voters will wake up and when their brains become conscious of where their rising taxes are going; free housing, free healthcare, free education and every other public assistance program to illegal aliens and it’s coming out of you’re paycheck. At this point Americans who reside far away from the Southern border don’t think they will be ever be impacted financially…but in actual fact, through illegal parents, children, which almost everything for illegal aliens has become–FREE!

    LET ME GIVE IT TOO YOU STRAIGHT AND I WOULD CONFESS THE SAME FOR MILLIONS OF AMERICANS. I WILL ABSTAIN FROM VOTING FOR ANYBODY THEN DONALD TRUMP, THIS MEANS ANYBODY. NOT FOR CRUZ, KASICK AND ANY OTHERS WHO THINK AFTER LOST THERE CHANCE ARE THEN GOING TO STROLL IN AND SOMEHOW CLAIM DELEGATES? THIS WHOLE ELECTION PROCESS STINKS TO HIGH HEAVEN OF ALREADY BEING RIGGED, AS IT PLAYS INTO THE HANDS OF GOP MACHINE OR THE DEMOCRATS? WHEN YOU HAVE A BLOATED, OVERPOWERING GOVERNMENT RUN BY A LIBERAL AND HIS HANDLERS, THEY WILL TWIST LAWS SO THAT HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT INDICTED FOR IGNORING THE AMBASSADOR IN BENGHAZI PLEADING FOR REINFORCEMENTS WHERE ALL FOUR WERE MURDERED.

    SINCE JUNE 16 AT THE FIRST DEBATE PUNDIT, ANCHOR, POLITICIAN AND NEWSPAPERS IS BEEN HITTING HARD AT DONALD TRUMP, AS THE POPULAR VOTE IS ON HIS SIDE AND WHEN HE HIS CONFRONTED BY HILLARY CLINTON SHE WILL WISH SHE WAS NEVER BORN, BECAUSE HER PAST CRIMINAL HISTORY WILL RISE TO THE SURFACE LIKE A DECAYED CORPSE.

    In all seriousness I do not believe what the mainstream press is printing, as they are trying to demoralize Trump voters intentionally in writing out of context different facts, so that you will move over to Ted Cruz that personally found he is lying in many of his promises. Think that Cruz and his wealthy cronies are going to derail a Donald Trump presidency, when all they are going to do is send millions of Americans home and not voting, wrecking the Republican Party. Then Hillary Clinton is a habitual criminal who has shunned the law, since her conception as a lowly lawyer with a trail of money laundering through the Clinton foundation, the Benghazi slaughter and using her status as a Secretary of State to raise her livelihood in the millions of questionable dollars.

    Building a wall that is recognized around the Vatican, or the West bank in Israel or the 13 thousand mile wall in China has helped societies to exclude unfriendly entities; then surprisingly Saudi Arabia is itself building the colossal wall against any invasion. This is the same with the WALL that Donald Trump needs to stretch for a thousand miles, ending the illegal alien invaders easy access to our country, bring to in paramount quantities–drugs. For over 30 years we have been given the usual lip service, from the political parties about putting in a fence? What have got ‘Business as Usual” which means nothing–NOTHING? The political parties don’t even seen care, even though are spending other peoples money. The mind cannot even touch the amount of money spent on illegal immigrants/migrants, but it’s eating away at our taxes, social security, and those within our country who live below the poverty line.

    The frontier, the delineation line doesn’t even exist, as I have driven to the Arizona side and in many sectors, just miles of open border where anybody or groups of people can move. On main highways are giant signs telling people not to venture into the wilderness areas as inhabited by drug caravans. You cannot stop as the drug cartels have taken over OUR LAND. Can there be anything more disgraceful. There are huge warehouses where the US Border Patrol has interdicted cases of narcotics, waiting to be destroyed.

    And the drug keeps coming in and there are only 15.000 US Border Patrol agents to safeguard our country from the drugs, illegal aliens, and today terrorists assisted by gangs. Even the police departments in such counties as Maricopa have limited resources, to fight growing menace to our sovereign nation.

    Just remember that the only nominee for president, who will build the thousand mile wall, is Donald Trump. Cruz has promised but his Special interests who have paid for his campaign, is not going to allow him that opportunity. Whatever Cruz has promised is not going to happen and that goes for John Hasick, Hillary Clinton, or Bernie Sanders. The majority of the promises that they have offered will fade away like mist. There wealthy donors would never allow them to place a wall, not even more fencing at the Southern border. There is a huge demand for cheap labor or illegal Democratic voters.

  • Sean Oliver

    wow, come on now. This poll if you can call it a poll. Has ted 184, Trump 147 and Kasich with 101and 39 people still didn’t know whom they would vote for. You need around 700 to get a real poll…….

  • RON

    I am sorry Marquette U that I’m late for whatever is new going on in Milwaukee. I won’t be attending it whatever it is, as I am disturbed by the MU Board of Trustees cancelling the Tenure of Professor McAdams recently. To deny him free speech -on a Campus no less where free speech runs rampant down the rivers of education no? I guess it doesn’t meander across the MU Campus and apparently won’t anymore after this lesson in Civics -do as we say or we will undo you too-? appears the way ALL teachers MUST react or else the will lose face on the scale of 10 when it comes to the human race that deals with the “Wheels” who operate MU in Milwaukee, Wisconsin anymore. Therefore I for one will boycott any future participation in the Sports Programs that are available at MU. Sorry about that really, as I have liked-and enjoyed, the MU Basketball Program- since Al McGuire ruled the roost- and I have no doubt Al Mc. would be growling in his grave over the shady treatment Prof. McAdams received at the hands of the Trustees. Is it goodbye to free speech in good ol’ Beer drinking town of Milwaukee, Wis? Or in the small State of Marquette U that resides within the City? What a pity. Ta-ta to all. Perhaps being a Jesuit Priest means your nose is always twisted in the wind when looking for a Caveat to deplore and you skip right over the most obvious, in fact, at your back door it’s that close?

  • Cat Smythe

    “We all know enough to conclude that Hillary Clinton committed a crime relative to her use of private email for national security purposes

    Here is what the relevant law says:
    “Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody” 18 USC 793(e).

    Here are the questions which a jury would have to answer to convict Hilary:

    1. Was she entrusted with any document or information related to national defense?

    It is obvious that the answer is yes.

    2. Did she allow this information to be placed someplace other than its lawful location?

    It is obvious that many of her emails dealing with secrets and other official business were on a private email server when the law required them to be on secure State Department email servers.

    3. Was this done by Hillary’s gross negligence?

    We all have seen the evidence that her decision to do this was 100% deliberate. Deliberate wrong doing always satisfies the standard of gross negligence.

    She can be fined and sentenced to 10 years in jail for violating this statute.

    This is simple law and should have taken a very short time to evaluate and charge her.

    She should be criminally charged. If she is not, the government loses the moral right to charge any other employee for violating this law and a sacred trust to put nation above self.

    This was all about Hillary risking our national security for her personal ease.

    She is unfit to be president.” –Michael Farris

Comments are closed.

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