Is Wisconsin truly a swing state? Political expert considers what's in play

MILWAUKEE -- Wisconsin has been a hotbed of political activity in recent weeks. We saw both Donald Trump and Democratic vice presidential pick Tim Kaine in the state on Tuesday, August 16th. The polls seem to say one thing about Wisconsin -- while all the campaign visits communicate something else. So, is Wisconsin truly a swing state?

Judging by how frequently both parties' tickets are campaigning in the Badger State, you would think Wisconsin must be a state up for grabs.

"Wisconsin is really important. I've been here twice since I was added to the ticket and that's because Wisconsin is a critical place for us to win," said Tim Kaine, Democratic vice presidential nominee.

Kaine stopped in Madison on Tuesday, while Republican presidential nominee Trump rallied in West Bend.

"I am asking for your vote on November 8th so I can be your champion in the White House," Trump said.

Despite all the campaign stops, the most recent Marquette University Law School Poll paints a picture, not of a state up for grabs, but one in which Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 15 points among likely voters.

"Trump wants to create multiple scenarios for getting to 270 electoral college votes because he doesn't want a kind of 'all or nothing' bet on Ohio or Pennsylvania," said Mordecai Lee, Professor of Urban Planning at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Lee said even though Clinton has a decent lead in the polls, he thinks the Trump campaign views Wisconsin as winnable if it can mobilize the party's base in the state's rural and conservative counties.

"One could superficially say hey, Wisconsin in presidential elections has gone Democratic ever since Ronald Reagan ran for re-election. But that's really missing the statistics of how close some of the elections were," Lee said.

Lee also said winning Wisconsin could help Trump make up for a loss in a larger electoral state.

"If you put together Wisconsin and Iowa and maybe Colorado, all of a sudden we're the equivalent of a Pennsylvania or an Ohio," Lee said.

Lee said the next few weeks will really indicate Wisconsin's role in this race. If we continue seeing the candidates frequently and start seeing media buys, it is a state in play. If things quiet down, Lee said it means Trump has likely given up on the state -- and the Clinton campaign will not need to spend as many resources here.