Marquette Law poll: Johnson leads Barnes, Evers/Michels a toss-up

Marquette Law poll; Johnson leads, governor's race a toss-up

Sen. Ron Johnson strengthen his lead in the new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin, released Wednesday, Oct. 12. The governor’s race is tightening with Gov. Tony Evers ahead in the tossup race.

MILWAUKEE - Sen. Ron Johnson strengthen his lead in the new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin, released Wednesday, Oct. 12. The governor’s race is tightening with Gov. Tony Evers ahead in the tossup race.

Wisconsin's Senate race is one of the nation’s most closely watched that will help decide which party controls the chamber.

Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is backed by 46% of likely voters. Johnson was ahead in the September poll, with 49% to 48% for Barnes. In August, Barnes led the race.

Mandela Barnes; Ron Johnson

What's changed is Barnes is losing support among independents. In August, Barnes was winning that group by 15 points. That was after his primary, where his Democratic opponents didn’t attack him.

Now, Republican Johnson is winning that important group. We saw Johnson take a slight lead among independents in September, and now, he's ahead by 6 points.

"Watch those independents," said Franklin, "they’re the ones that are shifting in our data."

What's on the mind of these swing voters in this swing state?

According to Wednesday's Marquette poll, the number one issue is public schools. Here are the percentages of likely voters who say they are very concerned about these topics:

Public schools-71%
Inflation-69%
Gun violence-58%
Crime-55%
Accurate vote count-55%
Taxes-53%
Abortion policy-53%
Illegal immigration-37%
Coronavirus-10%

Among independents, abortion is down as the seventh issue, and that's the issue Barnes has been focusing in his campaign events.

As of Wednesday, he'd spent 12 days crisscrossing the state on his "Ron against Roe Tour."

This race is trending for Johnson, but it all comes down to turnout.

"It is important to say that’s for likely voters, the people who are certain they are going to vote. If we look at all registered voters, then it’s actually a tie in that race," Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin said of the Senate matchup. "So, this is a good example of how turnout could matter: whether we have a high or low turnout race could switch those numbers. Plus, of course, we have a month for people to make up their minds."

Tim Michels; Tony Evers

As for the governor's race, it is a tossup. 47% of likely voters say they support the Democrat incumbent Evers, to 46% backing Republican Tim Michels. An independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, has dropped out of the race and endorsed Michels, but she is still on the ballot. In this poll, 4% of likely voters say they support Beglinger. Another 1% said they don't know who will get their vote. Where will these 5% of voters go on Election Day could decide who wins this tossup race.

Evers' lead has shrunk. In September, 47% said they were supporting Evers, while 44% wanted Michels and and 5% were for Beglinger.

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We're also seeing Michels starting to win independents. In August, Evers was up by 11 points among that group. In September, he was up by 6, and now, Michels is up by 1 point among independents.

With less than a month for the campaigns to try to win you over, with so much on the line and with the polls so close, expect to see a lot more ads. AdImpact Politics finds this state has the second most expensive governor's race in the country.

Marquette's poll surveyed the state Oct. 3-9, 2022, interviewing 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 points. Of those 801 people, 652 were deemed likely voters and the margin of error for that set is +/-4.8 points. Most of the voters were sampled before the debate between the U.S. Senate candidates on Oct. 7, so Franklin says they don't have enough data to decipher if the debate tilted these results.

Franklin says they are trying to be as accurate as possible. He says they contacted 75% of their respondents on cell phones.

Polling website FiveThirtyEight says the Marquette Law School Poll has correctly forecasted 81% of the 13 races the site analyzed.

"In all seriousness, every pollster is worried about polling errors. We’re all doing what we think we can do to address those issues," Franklin said. "But the proof will be in the pudding."

Wednesday's Marquette poll offers the latest snapshot; a temperature check with voters with four weeks to go until you decide on Nov. 8. The law school's next poll is due out the Wednesday before the election.