Marquette poll: Biden, Trump tied among registered Wisconsin voters
MILWAUKEE - The latest Marquette University Law School poll of registered voters found the race for the White House is a tie – President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each at 49%.
A likely rematch of the 2020 presidential race is coming at a fast clip. In November, the poll found it was Biden 50% and Trump 48% among both registered and likely voters.
"It’s going to be interesting to see what will come of this one, I’ll tell you that," said Marquez Tatum, owner of Quez Creations barbershop.
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"I think it may go the other way this time," said Milwaukee voter Robert Wright. "(Trump's) got a strong supporting group behind him."
At Quez Creations on Milwaukee's north side, people were willing to stick their necks out on politics Wednesday. Wright said he was "up in the air," while fellow voter Ed Bullock said he plans to vote for Biden.
Quez Creations barbershop in Milwaukee
"I’m not excited. I know it’s just something you have to do. You gotta vote," said Bullock.
Voter turnout in Milwaukee County has seen a sharp cut since 2012; there were 33,000 fewer voters in 2020 compared to 2012. That is more than the margin that ultimately separated the last two presidential winners and losers in Wisconsin, each race decided by around 20,000 votes.
"With so many of our forefathers dying for the fight for us to vote, and considering it’s our constitutional right to vote, I wanted to exercise my right, so they’re dying wouldn’t be in vain," Tatum said.
FULL RESULTS: Marquette University Law School Poll – Feb. 7, 2024
Third-party support
The Marquette poll also found some third-party buzz among Wisconsin voters.
The poll gave registered voters five options – including the Green Party's Jill Stein, and independents Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West. Among all five candidates, Trump led with 40% support, followed by Biden (37%), Kennedy (16%), Stein (4%) and West (2%).
"A number to watch is that 18% that dislike both Biden and Trump. Does that number come down? In previous races, it's tended to get under 10% that don’t like both candidates," said the poll's Charles Franklin. "How do those people resolve the dilemma of ‘I don’t like either of these guys; I’m going to vote third party; I’m not going to vote; I’m going to decide that the lesser of two evils matters; or I’m going to decide that I hate one of them more than I hate the other.'"
"Assuming that we end up on a knife’s edge like we usually do in presidential races, turnout and defections to third parties could play a huge role. It played some role in 2016, which was a very close race," Franklin said. "What we’re seeing right now in this poll is substantial, indeed historically high levels of third-party support.
"But I hasten to say: That doesn’t mean that support will stay there as we get in the fall, especially if you think 20-30% don’t think Trump or Biden will actually be the nominee by the time we get to the convention."
Biden, Trump on the issues
On the issues, the poll found 52% of registered Wisconsin voters favor Trump on the economy and 54% back him on immigration and border security. On the Israel-Hamas war, 44% preferred Trump, with 31% for Biden.
The poll also found 40% of registered voters favor Biden on health care to Trump's 36%, and 44% are behind Biden on abortion. Biden also won on Medicare and Social Security.
"The most important issue for me is health care. Health care is really important because we have a lot of elderly people out here who need to know the understanding of health care. They basically need medicine and need things done for them," said Wright. "If they can discuss health care, oh yeah, that’s really important for me."
On the question if the candidates were too old to be president, 83% say that fits 81-year-old Joe Biden either very well or somewhat well, while 56% say that fits 77-year-old Donald Trump either very well or somewhat well.
State Issues
The poll also surveyed voters on state debates, including redistricting of legislative maps. It found 42% of registered voters favored replacing the current maps, while 34% opposed, while 23% say they don’t know.
As far as medical marijuana, 86% say they supported it; 10% opposed it and 4% said they don’t know. For full legalization of marijuana, 63%, said they supported it and 29% were opposed.
About the poll
Tthe Marquette Law School Poll was done Jan. 24-31, 2024, and spoke with 930 Wisconsin registered voters. The poll reports a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points.
The Marquette University Law School poll is rated third best in the country, according to 538's new new pollster ratings.