Paul Ryan (Photo by Mateusz Wlodarczyk/NurPhoto via Getty Images) Former President Donald Trump (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE - Former House Speaker and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan predicts Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee in 2024.
"I think Trump’s un-electability will be palpable by then. We all know he will lose, or let me put it this way: we all know he’s much more likely to lose the White House than anybody else running for president on our side of the aisle," Ryan said. "So why would we want to go with that?"
The former Republican vice presidential nominee in 2012 is vice chairman of Teneo, a global company that advises CEOs. Ryan joined Teneo for its "Insights Series" to discuss the 2022 midterm elections. He also discussed 2024 and the power of Trump.
"The only reason he stays where he is, is because everybody is afraid of him. They’re afraid of him going after them, hurting their own ambition."
He went on to speculate about when others might jump into the 2024 race.
"I think people will delay their decisions, and they’ll wait for somebody else to take the first plunge to take the ire of Trump, to have him go after that person and try and hurt them with MAGA voters, so then they can follow behind," he said. "So, it’s kind of a prisoner’s dilemma. But the person who gets in the race earlier can organize earlier, can sign up supporters earlier, can sign up donors earlier, can get a better jump on it, so it really is a total prisoner’s dilemma."
On whom might run, Paul said ambition is a powerful motivator in politics. "There’s a handful of people that are going to run, because it’s the only cycle they can run in. They can’t wait until 2028. They’ve got to go now, if they’re ever going to go. And they don’t want to die without ever trying."
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The former speaker offered a caveat: if there are enough other candidates running in the Republican primary that it dilutes the not-Trump vote, leaving enough support for the former president. Ryan predicted, however, the Republican Party would consolidate behind a non-Trump candidate during the primary.
"Whether he runs or not, I don’t really know if it matters. He’s not going to be the nominee, I don’t think."
Republicans plan to host the Republican National Convention to nominate their presidential nominee in Milwaukee.