Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin launches run for third term

MADISON, Wis. - As Wisconsin voters will once again help decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the United States Senate in 2024, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin announced she is seeking a third term.

"Wisconsinites need somebody who is on their side, fighting for them, lowering prices, creating good paying jobs and helping people upscale to fill jobs that are open right now," Baldwin said during a visit to Eau Claire on April 12.

No Republican has yet jumped in to the 2024 Senate contest in Wisconsin, a race that will have national importance.

Democrats control the U.S. Senate, but in 2024, they’ll be on defense. The Cook Political Report, a political forecaster, says there are three Senate toss-up states: Arizona, Ohio and West Virginia, all three seats are held by senators elected as Democrats, although Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in 2022 switched her party affiliation to independent.

The Cook Political Report forecasts there are five 2024 Senate races, including Wisconsin, that are not toss-ups, but close. All five seats are currently held by Democrats: Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each case, Cook says the races lean Democratic, meaning there is a slight advantage for that party.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Photo by Tannen Maury-Pool/Getty Images)

Baldwin won her first term to the Senate in 2012, when she beat former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson by five points.

In 2018, she increased her margin of victory in a state with many razor-thin elections, beating Leah Vukmir by nearly 11 points.

"She does really well in western Wisconsin, in the Fox Valley," said Dan Shafer, columnist with The Recombobulation Area. "She really is a candidate that has a lot of statewide reach, so I think going into 2024, especially given the momentum Democrats have in the state of Wisconsin, I think she is looking like a favorite."

There are other trends that move in her favor.

Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin

"One thing we saw in the 2022 midterms was the power of incumbency, as well," said Shafer. "Wisconsin reelected their incumbent senator and incumbent governor, so Baldwin, going into the 2024 race, is going to have that incumbency advantage."

In 2022, Wisconsin reelected the Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and the Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. In April 2023, the state sided with Wisconsin Supreme court progressive candidate Janet Protasiewicz over conservative Daniel Kelly, with 56% of the vote for her and 44% for him.

Senator Tammy Baldwin

While no Republicans have announced if they’re running, conservatives say the right candidate could beat Baldwin.

"She’s a formidable candidate, and really what I think this really highlights is the need for new leadership, for fresh candidates, not rehashing old elections," said Sam Rogers of Americans for Prosperity. "The center right in Wisconsin really needs to unite around the idea of winning elections rather than infighting and squabbling over past elections."

Who might run? Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke said he’d be open to running, and Republican insiders said businessman Eric Hovde might be eyeing a run. He ran and lost the 2012 Republican primary for Senate. Then, there’s the Wisconsin GOP congressmen, but they'd have to give up their seats to run against Baldwin, something that might deter them from challenging her.

"I think Congressman Mike Gallagher from the 8th Congressional district is probably the candidate who would fare the best. He’s done really well in his district. It remains to be seen whether that success that he’s had in his home district would translate to a statewide race, whether he would be the type of candidate who would succeed in a Republican primary, where you need to speak to those base voters," said Shafer.

"The guy I have an eye on for whether he’s going to run or not would be Tom Tiffany, the Congressman from the 7th Congressional district in the north, northwest part of the state," added Shafer, although he didn't think Tiffany nor the other possibilities could beat her.

"Sean Duffy has been a name that’s been floated in the past. I’d certainly be interested to see if Rebecca Kleefisch would take another swing at a statewide race. I think there’s a lot of people who have a lot of ‘what ifs’ when it comes to that one last year," stated Shafer.

Kleefisch lost the 2022 Republican primary for governor to Tim Michels, a GOP candidate who went on to lose to Evers in the general election.

"A CNN poll just showed that Republicans are winning on a lot of issues: economy, crime, immigration, government spending, and free speech, parental rights, a whole host of crucial issues. The thing is connecting those issues to a quality candidate, and right now the field is wide open for 2024 in the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin," said Rogers.

Shafer pointed out that Republicans have lost 14 of the last 17 statewide races.

Wisconsin's political parties reacted to Baldwin's announcement.

"It’s a great day in Wisconsin when Tammy Baldwin announces that she’s seeking a third term. No one works harder for Wisconsin families than Tammy Baldwin," wrote Wisconsin Democratic chair Ben Wikler.

"Baldwin has a lot of explaining to do after voting in lockstep with Joe Biden’s unpopular agenda over 95% of the time, complete with its inflationary spending that has pushed our economy to the tipping point," wrote Wisconsin Republican communications director Rachel Reisner.