Wisconsin Assembly district maps, 1st election with new boundaries
MADISON, Wis. - The battle for control of the Wisconsin Assembly comes down to your vote and, with it, many important issues that affect your lives, as Democrats and Republicans have competing plans for issues such as marijuana, school vouchers, gun restrictions, abortion and spending tax dollars.
The Nov. 5 election marks the first time the whole state will use new legislative maps, which Gov. Tony Evers originally proposed and then signed into law earlier this year. All 99 Assembly seats are on the ballot.
SIGN UP TODAY: Get daily headlines, breaking news emails from FOX6 News
The Republican Party has controlled the Wisconsin Assembly since 2011, but the new maps open up pick-up opportunities for Democrats.
"In the state Assembly, there's a small chance they could win a majority," said John Johnson, a researcher with the Marquette University Lubar Center. "In the state Senate, no – but the Republicans will pretty much definitely lose their supermajority."
Wisconsin State Senate (Oct. 25, 2024)
Wisconsin State Assembly (Oct. 25, 2024)
Right now, Republicans have a supermajority in the Wisconsin Senate. They are very close to a supermajority in the Assembly, too, where they hold a 30-seat majority.
Assembly:
- Democrat: 34
- Republican: 64
Senate:
- Democrat: 10
- Republican: 22
Political forecasters said it’s very likely Republicans will keep control of the Assembly, though with a smaller majority. CNalysis estimated Assembly Republicans have a 72% chance of keeping control and Democrats have a 28% chance of flipping the chamber blue.
FREE DOWNLOAD: Get breaking news alerts in the FOX6 News app for iOS or Android.
Johnson said there are about seven to eight assembly seats that are toss-ups that will determine who controls the Assembly.
"The most competitive races are in Sheboygan, two in the Green Bay area, one in Neenah, Menasha, Wausau, a couple that are around Eau Claire," he explained. "One near Hudson or St. Croix, and then a couple in the La Crosse area."
Featured
Wisconsin early voting; shorter lines, system lags ease
After long lines and technical problems, early voting in Wisconsin is going much smoother on Friday, Oct. 25.
There are also two competitive Assembly races in southern Milwaukee County.
"I believe it's moved slightly more Republican leaning. Bob Donovan is basically the incumbent there, so I would say he's favored to win that," Johnson said. "The 21st District, where Jesse Rodriguez is the incumbent, is a different story. It's moved quite a bit more in a Democratic direction in its new boundaries. On paper, it looks like it leans Democratic, but Rodriguez has been an incumbent for a while. She's run strongly there in the past. I think she has a lot of positive name recognition."
"Sheboygan, it leans slightly Democratic, but Republicans imagine that they could win it, too. It's the kind of seat that Democrats have to win if they want to do well."
"In a great night for Democrats, they win pretty much all of those and have a slight majority in the state assembly. In a great night for Republicans, where Eric Hovde wins, and where Donald Trump wins, I think they could win all the seats we just mentioned," Johnson said, but in which Democrats would still pick up seats.
2024 Election: Wisconsin Voting Guide, what you need to know
Now, campaign ads and mailers are trying to sway your Assembly vote.
"So much money and it just speaks to the importance of these races in determining control of the Legislature," said Johnson. "In the past, there would be a few competitive races, but it didn't really matter if a Democrat or a Republican won them because that Republican majority was so stable in the Legislature."
With control of the Assembly on the line, these new maps also mean voters might be in a new legislative district.