Wisconsin El Niño winters past have proven challenging
MILWAUKEE - It became a catchphrase on "Game of Thrones," but it is also true: Winter is coming.
Typically, we spend most of our days in the FOX6 News weather office looking forward. We study surface maps, forecast models, satellite data, etc. However, sometimes to know what is coming in the future, we have to look at our past.
What’s now known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation has occurred every two to seven years or so for at least the past 300 years. There is evidence that a strong El Niño in the late 1700s led to poor crop yields in Europe, and helped touch off the French Revolution. There is even evidence for El Niño events dating back 10,000 years ago -- shortly after the glaciers began to melt.
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Looking back
Even decades of Wisconsin weather recorded on tape and film in our FOX6 video library and in our climate logs does not go back far enough for Milwaukee's first, recorded, strong El Niño. For that, we need to go back to the winter of 1896-1897. For some perspective, Wisconsin only became a state in 1848, and Milwaukee weather records officially date back to 1871.
The winter of 1896-1897 was marked by record warmth. The record warm high and warm low for Jan. 1, 1897 still stands today at 56 degrees and 40 degrees respectively.
When it comes to dry El Niño winters, the strong El Niño of 2009-2010 is a great example. That winter started strong with snow on Thanksgiving Day, but then it dried up fast.
That winter saw just 38.3 inches of snow. Over 40% of that total came down in just two storms – Jan. 7 with more than 7 inches, and Feb. 9 with more than 8 inches. In fact, that January through March had less than 1 inch of precipitation – rain or snow – each month.
That winter had such little snowfall in the Milwaukee area that landscapers who turned to snow removal for a winter paycheck were worried about going out of business.
A local business operator went on record saying: "If it doesn’t snow, it’s not a good thing. You’re gonna see a lot of guys going bankrupt by spring. I talked to a lot of landscapers, and they are hoping and wishing for this snow and if it doesn't come, you’re gonna see a lot of doors close."
Ski hills in the area were feeling the pinch, too, as mild temperatures creating a late start to the snow-making season.
Blizzard of 2006
Of course, the El Niño Southern Oscillation can still generate plenty of winter weather when it cranks up the lake effect snow machine. That is what happened during the Dec.1 Blizzard of 2006. It was the first major winter storm of that year. Between 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. that day, at least 10 inches of snow fell over much of southeast Wisconsin.
Areas nearest to Lake Michigan were the hardest hit with intense lake enhanced snow falling. The U.S. Coast Guard Station in Kenosha measured 17 inches.
Outright blizzard conditions occurred for several hours within three to five miles of the Lake Michigan shoreline with strong wind gusts measuring 35 to 40 mph in that area. Visibility was reduced to zero at times. Some thunder and lightning was even reported around Port Washington as well.
A stretch of I-94 east of Moorland Road was closed for that Friday morning to allow snow plow crews time to push the snow off the road. Flights were either delayed or canceled at Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport.
While an El Niño winter might be seasonally warmer and drier overall, it is still going to be winter in Wisconsin – and you still need to be prepared.